{"id":11620,"date":"2020-01-10T10:07:42","date_gmt":"2020-01-10T09:07:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/solunion.com\/?p=11620"},"modified":"2020-02-12T09:54:38","modified_gmt":"2020-02-12T08:54:38","slug":"weekly-export-risk-outlook-8-1-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/solunion.com\/en\/weekly-export-risk-outlook-8-1-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Export Risk Outlook 8\/1\/2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"11620\" class=\"elementor elementor-11620\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2822dd83 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2822dd83\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;_id&quot;:&quot;997b6a7&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_tablet&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_mobile&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:50,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_type&quot;:&quot;scroll&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_z_index&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size&quot;:&quot;auto&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_animation_prop&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;jet_parallax_layout_direction&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_fx_direction&quot;:null,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-dff8c6e\" data-id=\"dff8c6e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-687de2a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"687de2a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn contiene informaci\u00f3n sobre Ir\u00e1n, Estados Unidos, Espa\u00f1a, China, Chile, Francia, \u00c1frica y As\u00eda-Pac\u00edfico.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2db6ad32 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2db6ad32\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;_id&quot;:&quot;a15921e&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_tablet&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_mobile&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:50,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_type&quot;:&quot;scroll&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_z_index&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size&quot;:&quot;auto&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_animation_prop&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;jet_parallax_layout_direction&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_fx_direction&quot;:null,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-646081f\" data-id=\"646081f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-69d5f177 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"69d5f177\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Oriente Medio: el conflicto Ir\u00e1n-EE. UU. se ha intensificado<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4e5d75a5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4e5d75a5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>El asesinato del general iran\u00ed Qassem Soleimani en un ataque a\u00e9reo estadounidense el pasado 3 de enero podr\u00eda cambiar las reglas del juego y dar al traste con la estabilidad en Oriente Medio. Ahora, una escalada del conflicto entre EE. UU. e Ir\u00e1n parece ya irreversible, como lo demuestra el lanzamiento de misiles bal\u00edsticos por parte de Ir\u00e1n contra las tropas estadounidenses el 8 de enero, con tres consecuencias principales que ser\u00e1n visibles en 2020:<\/p><p>(i) Es probable que la pol\u00edtica exterior estadounidense contin\u00fae desentendi\u00e9ndose de su papel como importante proveedor de bienes p\u00fablicos mundiales (de seguridad) mientras recurre a la pol\u00edtica exterior (comercio y geopol\u00edtica) como contrafuego para defender los asuntos internos (como el \u00abimpeachment\u00bb).<\/p><p>ii) Es probable que la confrontaci\u00f3n entre Ir\u00e1n y EE. UU. se intensifique en los pr\u00f3ximos meses, con m\u00e1s escaramuzas letales. Sin embargo, lo m\u00e1s plausible es que se mantenga controlada, aunque el riesgo de una guerra abierta entre los dos bandos ciertamente ha aumentado y no debe obviarse a la hora de hacer negocios en la regi\u00f3n. En cualquier caso, la ya elevada inestabilidad regional en Oriente Medio se ha intensificado.<\/p><p>(iii) Las crecientes tensiones a\u00f1adir\u00e1n una prima al precio del petr\u00f3leo este a\u00f1o y elevar\u00e1n la volatilidad; nuestro modelo sugiere una revisi\u00f3n al alza del escenario central de precios del crudo de 62 USD el barril a 66 USD de media en 2020. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-588a5b85 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"588a5b85\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;_id&quot;:&quot;4eada37&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_tablet&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_mobile&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:50,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_type&quot;:&quot;scroll&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_z_index&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size&quot;:&quot;auto&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_animation_prop&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;jet_parallax_layout_direction&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_fx_direction&quot;:null,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-239df331\" data-id=\"239df331\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2e90d399 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2e90d399\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Si quieres leer el bolet\u00edn completo desc\u00e1rgatelo a continuaci\u00f3n en pdf.<\/span>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7f070074 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7f070074\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\" data-settings=\"{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_list&quot;:[{&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;_id&quot;:&quot;fada2ab&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_tablet&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_image_mobile&quot;:{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;id&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_speed&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;%&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:50,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;jet_parallax_layout_type&quot;:&quot;scroll&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_z_index&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y&quot;:50,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size&quot;:&quot;auto&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_animation_prop&quot;:&quot;transform&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_on&quot;:[&quot;desktop&quot;,&quot;tablet&quot;],&quot;jet_parallax_layout_direction&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_fx_direction&quot;:null,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_x_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_y_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_tablet&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;jet_parallax_layout_bg_size_mobile&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-66948d3c\" data-id=\"66948d3c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-391b49f7 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"391b49f7\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/solunion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/elementor\/thumbs\/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook-pvtlu6c8fx0va7dejnvb6953vrshfe4wm9dlyams42.jpg\" title=\"Weekly Export Risk Outlook\" alt=\"Weekly Export Risk Outlook\" loading=\"lazy\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-543f2008\" data-id=\"543f2008\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3b9aee4a elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3b9aee4a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Weekly Export Risk Outlook 8\/1\/2020<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-68a20c38 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"68a20c38\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Weekly Export Risk Outlook.pdf<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-17a4c34c elementor-align-center elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"17a4c34c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-lg\" href=\"https:\/\/solunion.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Weekly-Export-Risk-Outlook-No.1-8-January-2020-ES-1.pdf\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<i aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"far fa-file-pdf\"><\/i>\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Descargar bolet\u00edn riesgo pa\u00eds<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn contiene informaci\u00f3n sobre Ir\u00e1n, Estados Unidos, Espa\u00f1a, China, Chile, Francia, \u00c1frica y As\u00eda-Pac\u00edfico. Oriente Medio: el conflicto Ir\u00e1n-EE. UU. se ha intensificado El asesinato del general iran\u00ed Qassem Soleimani en un ataque a\u00e9reo estadounidense el pasado 3 de enero podr\u00eda cambiar las reglas del juego y dar al traste con la estabilidad [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":11577,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[298,299],"tags":[377,379,375,374,373,366,371,372,370,369,368,376,367,378],"class_list":["post-11620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-exportometro","category-riesgo-pais","tag-africa","tag-asia-pacifico","tag-chile-economia","tag-china-bce","tag-china-politica","tag-conflicto-iran","tag-espana-comercio","tag-espana-economia","tag-espana-empresas","tag-espana-gobierno","tag-estados-unidos-iran","tag-francia-exportaciones","tag-oriente-medio","tag-pmi"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Export Risk Outlook 8\/1\/2020 - Solunion, Credit and Surety insurance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/solunion.com\/en\/weekly-export-risk-outlook-8-1-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weekly Export Risk Outlook 8\/1\/2020 - Solunion, Credit and Surety insurance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nuestro \u00faltimo bolet\u00edn contiene informaci\u00f3n sobre Ir\u00e1n, Estados Unidos, Espa\u00f1a, China, Chile, Francia, \u00c1frica y As\u00eda-Pac\u00edfico. Oriente Medio: el conflicto Ir\u00e1n-EE. 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