{"id":464,"date":"2016-02-04T09:12:12","date_gmt":"2016-02-04T08:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/solunionblog.roiup-server.com\/?p=464"},"modified":"2019-11-22T09:30:32","modified_gmt":"2019-11-22T08:30:32","slug":"feliz-ano-v-u-c-a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/solunion.com\/en\/feliz-ano-v-u-c-a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a1Feliz a\u00f1o V.U.C.A!"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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2016 ha tenido un comienzo prometedor, con otra ronda de factores del miedo que llegan desde China.<\/p>

Un indicador negativo unido a disyuntores, bast\u00f3 para amenazar con una masacre del mercado burs\u00e1til y de las divisas, y hacer que el planeta se preocupase por China y por el mundo.\u00a0 Desde hace un par de a\u00f1os, vengo escribiendo (y hablando) sobre cuotas atrasadas que aumentan, impagos e insolvencias de empresas chinas. La desconexi\u00f3n entre las cifras de los titulares macroecon\u00f3micos (y los mercados burs\u00e1tiles) y la econom\u00eda real, era obvia. Y ahora la pregunta es: \u00bfdebemos estar preocupados por China?<\/p>

S\u00ed y no.<\/p>

S\u00ed, porque la fase de industrializaci\u00f3n parece haber acabado. Los sectores de manufacturas tradicionales est\u00e1n hasta arriba de deudas (los ratios de apalancamiento se triplicaron en los \u00faltimos 15 a\u00f1os) y no empezar\u00e1n a invertir de nuevo hasta pasado un buen tiempo, ya que la rentabilidad ha sufrido una gran erosi\u00f3n y el apoyo del Estado no volver\u00e1 a ser autom\u00e1tico.<\/p>

S\u00ed, tambi\u00e9n, porque el mundo necesita encontrar otro consumidor favorito. Las importaciones chinas contin\u00faan menguando, haciendo que los precios de las materias primas, desde el petr\u00f3leo al mineral de hierro, se mantengan bajos y que los centros de comercio vecinos se resientan. Como resultado, los pa\u00edses piensan en cortafuegos que les ayuden a frenar el contagio, las compa\u00f1\u00edas en c\u00f3mo acortar las cadenas de suministro, y la gente se preocupa por sus ahorros.<\/p>

(Des)afortunadamente, la exposici\u00f3n al riesgo de China es m\u00e1s baja en la vida real. Adem\u00e1s, hay razones para creer que China puede hacer las cosas como deber\u00eda. El pa\u00eds asi\u00e1tico puede seguir apoy\u00e1ndose en sus consumidores a\u00fan por explotar, tanto rurales como urbanos, con gustos occidentales (y ahorros). La demanda de servicios y productos de alta gama est\u00e1 aumentando.<\/p>

M\u00e1s importante a\u00fan, China tiene una inmensa fortaleza: su liderazgo. Como el mundo finalmente empieza a escrutar cada uno de sus movimientos,\u00a0 y el pa\u00eds experimenta una creaci\u00f3n iterativa de pol\u00edticas, China puede volver las tornas si soluciona sus propios trilemas.<\/p>

Primero, el de su divisa. China no puede tener tasas de cambio semifijas, libre circulaci\u00f3n de capitales y una pol\u00edtica monetaria independiente.<\/p>

Segundo, el crecimiento. El objetivo de crecimiento es bueno, pero no est\u00e1 relacionado ni con crecimiento de calidad (desapalancamiento) ni con reformas de suministro.<\/p>

Tercero y \u00faltimo, el de la financiaci\u00f3n. China tiene que elegir entre proteger su balance de situaci\u00f3n, continuar su pol\u00edtica fiscal expansionista y jugar la carta del comercio de nuevo, con iniciativas como la One Belt, One Road.<\/p>

Estas encrucijadas son importantes para China, porque pueden restaurar la confianza y el atractivo de su mercado o crear m\u00e1s frenes\u00ed. Mientras, China, igual que otros puntos calientes, desde el futuro de Europa a las pol\u00edticas de Estados Unidos, pasando por Oriente Medio y el Mundo Emergente, sufrir\u00e1 otro a\u00f1o V.U.C.A (siglas en ingl\u00e9s para vulnerabilidad, incertidumbre, complejidad y ambig\u00fcedad). Este acr\u00f3nimo militar, que se introdujo en los 90 suele utilizarse para pedir preparaci\u00f3n, anticipaci\u00f3n, evoluci\u00f3n e intervenci\u00f3n. Aqu\u00ed es donde parece que el mundo est\u00e1 fallando.<\/p>

As\u00ed que, \u00a1Feliz A\u00f1o V.U.C.A a todos!<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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Valora el contenido<\/h5>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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2016 ha tenido un comienzo prometedor, con otra ronda de factores del miedo que llegan desde China. \t\t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8366,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"yasr_overall_rating":0,"yasr_post_is_review":"","yasr_auto_insert_disabled":"","yasr_review_type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[301],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-escenario-macroeconomico"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00a1Feliz a\u00f1o V.U.C.A! - Solunion, Credit and Surety insurance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/solunion.com\/en\/feliz-ano-v-u-c-a\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00a1Feliz a\u00f1o V.U.C.A! 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